BTC price has settled in for consolidation around the pivotal $26,000 level. Bulls have since the massive drop from the previous range period with support at $29,000, set camp at $25,000 in a bid to dampen the expectations of an extended decline to $20,000 ahead of the next bull run.
BTC Price Consolidates As the Next Breakout Brews
Bitcoin is on the cusp of a short-term breakout based on the Bollinger bands indicator on the four-hour chart.
Bollinger bands measure the volatility of the Bitcoin market. They comprise a moving average and two standard deviations above and below it.
When the bands constrict as is the case with the current BTC price outlook, it means that the market is in a low volatility phase and a breakout is likely to occur soon.
Traders tap this indicator to anticipate the direction and magnitude of the breakout and place their bets accordingly. A breakout occurs when the price moves beyond one of the bands and signals a change in the trend.
Another key aspect of the Bollinger bands is that the price tends to return to the moving average.
In other words, if short-term support at $26,000 holds, traders can anticipate a rebound at least to $26,600 and if sidelined investors stream into the market to book fresh positions in BTC, the gains could extend to $28,200 and $30,000.
BTC/USD four-hour chart | Tradingview
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces the ongoing sideways trend, implying that Bitcoin lacks the momentum to trigger a breakout. Several obstacles line the recovery path with BTC price likely to stall at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (red) holding at $26,323, the 100-day EMA (blue) at $26,983 and the 200-day EMA (purple) at $27,829.
It is worth mentioning that declines below $26,000 would put pressure on the support/resistance at $25,000. There’s the possibility of a massive sell-off occurring with BTC falling to $20,000.
Bitcoin Supply On Centralized Exchanges Dims
The BTC price consolidation could be sending the wrong signals that investors are not stacking up on the leading crypto. On the contrary, data by CryptoQuant reveals that “reserves of US-based exchanges, such as Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, have declined by at least 30% and up to 50% or more.”
Bitcoin reserves on US-based centralized exchanges
Investors in the crypto market, especially long-term buyers prefer to store their digital assets away from centralized exchanges. In so doing, the supply held on the platforms dwindles, reducing the potential selling pressure. When this supply starts to increase again, it is often followed by a sell-off with investors closing positions to book profits.
Institutional activity has also been on the rise and is expected to be a major player in the next Bitcoin bull run. CryptoQuant’s data, which considered “the amount withdrawn and the deposit and withdrawal records of the wallets, institutions are continuously buying Bitcoin.”
3/ Institutions’ accumulation
Considering the amount withdrawn and the deposit and withdrawal records of the wallets, institutions are continuously buying #Bitcoin.
For example, In August alone, more than 20K $BTC, accounting for roughly 25%, were withdrawn from Gemini. pic.twitter.com/dWmlwWjoTN
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 28, 2023
While BTC price nurses wounds from the selling pressure this month, investors hope to ignore the ups and downs and focus on the next halving around April 2024. The four-year cycles that BTC goes through in line with the halving foreshadow a bull run around 2024/2025, which could propel the price to a new all-time high.
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